Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that global SAF production will reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for just 0.8 percent of total aviation fuel consumption, at a cost of $4.3 billion to airlines.
The projection highlights a widening gap between the aviation sector’s decarbonization ambitions and the current pace of fuel transition. Airlines have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, with SAF expected to deliver around 65 percent of required emissions reductions.
“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Five years after committing to net zero, SAF remains under one percent of total fuel use. The situation is being worsened by poorly sequenced government policies and a lack of meaningful engagement from oil producers.”
Walsh added that the ongoing global energy shock should have accelerated investment in renewable fuels, but policy incentives remain insufficient to stimulate a viable SAF market.
Policy and Market Gaps
IATA is calling for coordinated action across four key areas to accelerate SAF deployment. These include expanding renewable energy capacity to support fuel production, ensuring open access to infrastructure such as pipelines and storage facilities, and strengthening policy frameworks to reduce investment risk before imposing mandates.
The association also emphasized the need for a global SAF market supported by harmonized standards and a “book-and-claim” system, which would allow airlines to access SAF credits regardless of where the fuel is produced.
e-SAF Targets Face Scrutiny
In addition to bio-based SAF, IATA highlighted the growing importance of electro-SAF (e-SAF), produced using renewable electricity through power-to-liquid processes. However, the technology faces significant scalability challenges.
The European Union and the United Kingdom have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. Yet current global capacity—both operational and under construction—stands at only 0.02 million tonnes, with just one active production facility.
IATA estimates that around 20 commercial-scale refineries would be required to meet the 2030 target, but no new final investment decisions have been recorded over the past year.
“The 2030 e-SAF targets are not just unrealistic—they are detached from reality,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist. “Mandates imposed before production capacity is in place risk driving up costs and diverting resources from effective emissions reductions.”
Passenger Support Remains Strong
Despite slow progress on fuel production, passenger support for aviation decarbonization remains robust. According to IATA’s April 2026 survey, 89 percent of travelers believe the industry should continue reducing emissions even if government efforts weaken.
The survey also found that 66 percent of passengers are willing to pay higher fares to offset emissions, while nearly 88 percent expect ticket prices to rise due to sustainability investments.
Consumers increasingly favor tangible climate solutions, with SAF and emissions-reduction technologies ranking far ahead of taxation measures. Nearly half of respondents said they consider carbon emissions when booking flights, and most indicated that environmental performance influences their airline choice.
The findings suggest that while cost and convenience remain key factors, sustainability is becoming an integral part of consumer decision-making in air travel.
