Following a decisive military operation in Baidoa that resulted in the removal of Southwest State President Abdiasis Laftagaren, the Somali federal government is reportedly shifting its focus toward the strategic border town of Dolow.
This move represents a significant escalation in Villa Somalia’s campaign to dismantle regional opposition and consolidate central authority ahead of the nation’s 2026 electoral transition.
The recent takeover of Baidoa, the seat of power for Southwest State, has fundamentally altered the country’s political landscape. Following a week-long operation that ended with the ouster of President Laftagaren, federal forces successfully installed an acting administration, signaling Mogadishu’s willingness to use direct military intervention to resolve constitutional and political disputes.
Bolstered by this success, high-level security sources indicate that federal planners are now prioritizing the capture of Dolow. Located on the sensitive southern frontier with Ethiopia, Dolow serves as a critical gateway and a stronghold for the Jubaland administration, led by President Ahmed Madobe—a staunch rival of the current federal leadership.
Central to this federal strategy is Abdirashid Janan, the Gedo region’s commander for the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). Janan, a polarizing figure with deep roots in the region, recently returned to Mogadishu following a multi-week diplomatic and security mission in Ethiopia.
Historically, Janan controlled Dolow for years under the Jubaland banner before a dramatic fallout and subsequent alignment with the federal government. His intimate knowledge of the town’s defenses and local clan dynamics makes him the spearhead of Mogadishu’s regional ambitions, though his involvement remains controversial due to past allegations of human rights abuses documented by international organizations.
Mogadishu’s push into Gedo has, however, hit a diplomatic wall in Addis Ababa. Sources reveal that the federal government has repeatedly urged Ethiopian officials to recognize Janan as the primary authority in Gedo and to facilitate his cooperation with Ethiopian security forces stationed along the border.
Thus far, Ethiopian officials have rejected these overtures, wary of the potential for further instability on their doorstep. Simultaneously, the federal government is employing a “carrot and stick” approach, maintaining a nearly 18-month air blockade on Dolow while reportedly offering substantial financial incentives to local Jubaland officials to encourage defections.
The potential establishment of a parallel Jubaland administration in Gedo, led by Janan, appears to be the ultimate goal of the federal government. Yet, many analysts warn that this strategy is a high-stakes gamble that risks triggering a broader military confrontation between federal troops and Jubaland’s regional forces.
