Trade-enabling infrastructure across African markets is showing broad improvement, while business confidence and macroeconomic stability continue to strengthen, according to the latest edition of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB).
The fifth issue of the ATB examines trends across ten African economies—Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—which together account for 68 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. According to the report, firms across these markets reported improvements in all major infrastructure categories, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports, and digital border systems. This marks the first time since the Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, signaling growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation.
Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group, said the results reflect a positive shift in the continent’s trade environment. “Across the 10 markets we surveyed, infrastructure improvements were reported across every major category, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent,” he said.
The ATB projects average growth across its surveyed markets at 4.3 percent in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven of the ten economies and improved external debt positions. Business confidence rose to an index level of 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and greater trading stability. Commodity exporters also continue to benefit from higher prices for gold, platinum, and copper, providing a notable boost to export performance and foreign exchange earnings.
East Africa emerges as the strongest-performing subregion in Issue 5 of the ATB, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. The Barometer attributes this to coordinated policy reforms and trade-facilitation efforts across the region. Kenya plays a central role in this shift as a hub for regional integration, supported by its new trade classification agreement with Uganda that treats goods originating from Kenya as intra-regional transfers rather than imports. Similarly, Kenya and Tanzania’s renewed commitments to remove non-tariff barriers have eased border delays and improved logistics predictability. Combined with major upgrades along the Northern and Central transport corridors, these reforms are reducing transaction costs and increasing regional trade confidence.
The report notes that evolving global trade dynamics are also reshaping African exporters’ behavior. Engagement with U.S. markets has declined among surveyed firms, partly due to changing tariff structures and uncertainty around the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In contrast, business with Asian markets—particularly China—has grown, driven by competitive pricing, product diversity, and reliable supply chains.
Digital trade systems continue to transform cross-border transactions across the continent. The ATB finds that digital channels now account for 78 percent of cross-border sales and 79 percent of purchases, underscoring the growing use of bank-linked payment platforms, mobile money integration, and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS). These advances allow quicker settlement in local currencies and reduce reliance on hard-currency intermediaries.
Despite such progress, climate-related challenges remain a moderate drag on business performance. Thirty-eight percent of firms reported demand shifts linked to climate impacts, while 32 percent cited productivity losses due to weather-related factors. The report highlights the increasing need for resilient infrastructure and production systems to safeguard trade progress against environmental disruptions.
The ATB measures Africa’s tradability across seven pillars—trade openness, access to finance, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, government support, foreign trade dynamics, and trade financial behavior. According to the 2026 findings, trade openness and access to finance improved as rate cuts in countries such as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa expanded affordability and digital credit access for small and medium enterprises. Governance and policy perceptions also strengthened, with seven of the ten surveyed markets recording higher levels of perceived government support for cross-border trade.
Looking ahead, the report says Africa’s trade prospects are underpinned by ongoing integration, improved logistics, and more stable macroeconomic conditions. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, including instability in the Middle East, remain potential risks to energy prices and trade costs in the near term.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens and more countries harmonize customs, regulatory frameworks, and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value chains, and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate,” Myburgh concluded.
