Africa is expected to post solid economic growth in 2026, outperforming global averages amid continued resilience across key markets and commodities, according to the latest Coface Risk Review.
Coface forecasts continental growth of 4.3% in 2026, slightly up from 4.2% in 2025, supported by strong commodity demand, moderate food and energy prices, and improving currency positions in several economies. Globally, growth is projected at 2.6%, down marginally from 2.8% last year, as geopolitical and financial uncertainties continue to weigh on the outlook.
“Alongside the direct impact on growth, these trends support stronger currencies, lower imported inflation and the building of FX reserves,” said Aroni Chaudhuri, Africa Chief Economist at Coface. “Less pressure on external accounts will provide some leeway for countries with strained public finances and high financing needs.”
The report attributes Africa’s momentum to rising global demand for minerals and metals such as copper, gold, bauxite, and iron ore, boosting exporters like Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Guinea. These commodity gains are expected to offset subdued manufacturing performance in some regions.
Globally, Coface notes that 2026 began under “heavy pressure,” with geopolitical and financial risks intensifying in several regions. Events in Latin America, Iran, and Greenland illustrate growing instability, while financial markets remain strained by high debt levels and persistent interest rates.
The United States is forecast to grow by 2.2%, driven by robust consumption despite a 15% rise in corporate insolvencies in late 2025. The Eurozone is projected to expand by around 1%, with Germany rebounding thanks to large investment plans, while France remains constrained by a stubborn public deficit. In Central Europe, economies like Poland are posting stronger growth near 3.8%.
In Asia, China’s expected slowdown to 4.4% is likely to weigh on regional performance, though India continues to serve as a global growth engine with an estimated 6.1% expansion, supported by domestic demand and proactive public policy.
In South Africa, growth prospects are improving as mining activity increases, stimulating wider industrial linkages. Despite structural constraints and US tariffs, the country could benefit from lower fuel prices and a stronger rand, keeping inflation within the central bank’s new 3% target band and allowing for potential monetary easing.
Morocco is also set to remain among Africa’s best performers, with expected growth of 4.4% in 2026, driven by construction and renewed agricultural recovery. Infrastructure investment tied to preparations for the 2030 FIFA World Cup will further support expansion, while tourism continues to thrive with visitor numbers near 20 million in 2025.
Despite tariff tensions, global trade performed better than expected in 2025, expanding 3.9% as US imports grew and tariff hikes proved lower than anticipated. The effective average US tariff rate reached 9.4% by November, far below the 36% peak projected during trade tensions with China.
Meanwhile, oil prices are forecast to decline from USD 68 per Brent barrel in 2025 to around USD 60 this year, reflecting moderate demand and rising supply. Coface notes that these trends should help keep inflation in check across most regions.
While global growth remains uneven and risks persist, the report underscores Africa’s relative resilience and potential to sustain its strong performance through steady commodity revenues, stable macroeconomic conditions, and improved financial flexibility.
