The widening conflict in the Middle East has led to the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz trade route, plunging Kenya’s energy security into its most severe crisis in decades. This disruption has left hundreds of petrol stations across the country empty, threatening to drive the national economy into a “total crisis.”
Independent fuel retailers reported on Tuesday that approximately 20% of the country’s 3,100 outlets have already run out of stock. According to the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), major suppliers have begun rationing petrol and diesel, with the impact being felt most acutely in rural areas and small towns.
The crisis stems from the total halt of maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that accounts for 20% of global oil production. Because Kenya procures all of its fuel requirements through government-to-government agreements with Middle Eastern producers, it is directly vulnerable to this blockade.
“We are facing a supply shortage,” said POAK Chairman Martin Chomba. “If the tensions in the Middle East continue, there will be no fuel in most outlets within the next two weeks, creating a total crisis. The real emergency is still ahead of us.”
The disparity between local retail prices and the global market has further exacerbated the shortage. On March 14, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) decided to keep domestic retail prices unchanged—at 178.28 Shillings per litre in Nairobi—even as international crude oil prices surged past $120 per barrel.
While this price control provided temporary relief to consumers, it has triggered fears of hoarding. Industry experts suggest that some fuel distributors are concealing stocks in anticipation of a massive price hike during the next review cycle in the middle of next month.
Despite the growing fuel queues appearing across various parts of the country, the government is urging the public to remain calm. EPRA Director General Daniel Kiptoo Bargoria stated on Tuesday that Kenya maintains “sufficient fuel” within its strategic reserves.
However, ruling party lawmaker Nelson Koech acknowledged that fuel demand has spiked over the past 48 hours, attributing the strain to “speculation, panic buying, and hoarding by fuel traders.”
