Global demand for air travel is projected to more than double by 2050, according to new long-term forecasts released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Tuesday
The industry body’s Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) estimate that passenger demand will reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) by mid-century under a mid-range scenario, up from 9 trillion RPKs recorded in 2024. This represents an average annual growth rate of 3.1 percent over the 26-year period.
Under a higher growth scenario, demand could rise to 21.9 trillion RPKs, while a lower growth trajectory would still see demand reach 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050. IATA said the varying scenarios reflect uncertainties in global economic growth, demographic trends, fuel prices, energy transition dynamics, and aviation capacity development.
“The outlook for air travel is positive,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, demand is expected to more than double by mid-century. This growth will support global economic and social development, including job creation.”
Walsh added that the projections provide a critical planning framework for governments, industry stakeholders, and energy providers, while underscoring the need for supportive policies in infrastructure development, market access, regulatory alignment, and clean energy transition.
IATA’s outlook points to uneven regional growth, with emerging markets expected to drive the expansion. Asia-Pacific and Africa are forecast to be the fastest-growing regions, with annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent respectively between 2024 and 2050.
In contrast, more mature markets such as Europe and North America are projected to grow at slower rates of 2.5 percent and 2.8 percent.
Among the fastest-growing air travel markets globally are intra-African routes, expected to expand at 4.9 percent annually, followed by Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5 percent), Asia Pacific–Middle East (3.9 percent), intra-Asia Pacific (3.9 percent), and Africa–North America (3.8 percent).
The findings highlight the increasing importance of investment in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks across developing regions, particularly in Africa and Asia.
The report also identifies lasting structural changes in global aviation following the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous crises, the sharp collapse in air travel demand created a gap that is not expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic growth trends by 2050.
At the same time, while overall demand continues to rise, the pace of growth is gradually moderating. Historical data shows global air travel grew at an average annual rate of 6.1 percent between 1972 and 1998, slowing to 4.5 percent between 1998 and 2024. The current forecast projects further moderation to 3.1 percent annually through 2050.
IATA emphasized that this slowdown reflects market maturity rather than weakening demand, as total passenger volumes are still expected to increase significantly.
The projections are based on IATA’s proprietary econometric model, which draws on more than half a million data points across approximately 41,000 country pairs between 2011 and 2024. The model incorporates variables such as population, employment, flight frequency, aircraft size, and GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity.
Long-term economic assumptions are sourced from OECD global scenarios, while the model also accounts for the potential impact of the global energy transition on aviation demand.
According to IATA, the model has demonstrated an average prediction accuracy of 98 percent at the industry level, providing a robust basis for long-term planning.
