Ethiopia’s passenger air traffic is projected to increase nearly sixfold between 2025 and 2045, positioning the country among Africa’s fastest-growing aviation markets, according to the latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026) released by Airbus.
The forecast indicates that Ethiopia’s expanding passenger demand will contribute to a broader transformation of Africa’s aviation industry, driven by population growth, economic development, tourism, trade and increasing demand for air connectivity.
Airbus expects Africa to require 1,640 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years to accommodate the anticipated growth in air travel. The projected demand includes 1,310 single-aisle aircraft and 330 widebody aircraft by 2045.
For Ethiopia, the projected increase in passenger traffic represents significant opportunities for the aviation industry, tourism, trade and the wider economy. The forecast highlights the country’s strong potential for expanding domestic and international air connections as more people travel for business, tourism and other purposes.
According to Airbus, origin-and-destination passenger traffic in Ethiopia is expected to grow almost sixfold from 2025 to 2045. The company also projects that annual trips per capita in Ethiopia will rise by 150 percent over the same period, reflecting an expected increase in people’s propensity to travel.
The projected growth could create additional demand for airline services, airport infrastructure and supporting aviation businesses. However, the forecast does not specify how many of the 1,640 aircraft expected to be required across Africa would be allocated to Ethiopia.
Gabriel Semelas, president of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, said aviation would remain a major driver of the continent’s economic development.
“Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development,” Semelas said, emphasizing the importance of building a collaborative aviation ecosystem to connect communities, accelerate regional trade and expand economic opportunities.
He said the expected growth in passenger travel would create opportunities for countries across Africa, including Ethiopia, to strengthen connectivity and promote shared prosperity.
Airbus projects that passenger traffic to, from and within Africa will almost triple over the next 20 years, recording an annual compound growth rate of 4.9 percent. This would make Africa the world’s second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.
The forecast attributes the expected expansion to strong demographic and economic fundamentals. Africa’s population is projected to increase by 720 million people by 2045, exceeding two billion. Over the same period, the continent’s middle-class population is expected to grow by 180 million, while its urban population is projected to increase by 450 million.
Economic expansion is also expected to contribute to aviation growth. Airbus forecasts that Africa’s real gross domestic product will grow at an annual compound rate of 4 percent between 2025 and 2045, while real trade is projected to increase by 3.9 percent annually.
For Ethiopia, these regional trends could reinforce the anticipated expansion in passenger traffic. Greater economic activity and trade may increase demand for international connections, while rising travel propensity could support growth in both business and leisure travel.
The forecast, however, presents these figures as long-term projections rather than guaranteed outcomes. The pace of growth will depend on economic conditions, investment and the ability of aviation markets to respond to rising demand.
Tourism and trade are expected to remain important contributors to Africa’s aviation expansion, according to Airbus.
Greater visa openness, expanded fifth-freedom connectivity and deeper trade integration are among the factors expected to facilitate passenger movement across the continent. Fifth-freedom arrangements allow airlines, subject to relevant agreements, to carry passengers between two foreign countries as part of services connected to their home country.
The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could also strengthen intra-African trade and connectivity, supporting greater movement of people and commercial activity between African markets.
Continued investment in regional transportation networks and airport infrastructure is expected to improve access to destinations, including areas with tourism potential that remain difficult to reach.
For Ethiopia, stronger regional connectivity could create opportunities to expand links with African markets and improve access for international visitors. The country’s projected increase in passenger traffic suggests that aviation will remain an important consideration in planning for future transport demand.
