African airlines recorded modest air cargo growth in July, but the region remained the weakest performer globally as capacity expanded faster than demand and trade with Asia contracted sharply, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Cargo demand among African carriers rose 1.1 percent year-on-year in July 2026, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs). Available cargo capacity, however, expanded by 4.1 percent, causing the region’s cargo load factor to decline by 1.4 percentage points to 45.8 percent.
The performance trailed the global market, where air cargo demand increased by 3.9 percent and capacity rose 1.7 percent. Africa accounted for just 2.1 percent of worldwide cargo traffic in 2025, underlining the continent’s limited share of global air-freight activity despite its growing need for export logistics and trade connectivity.
The Africa–Asia trade lane was among the weakest-performing corridors in July, with air cargo volumes falling 14.7 percent year-on-year. The contraction marked the second consecutive month of decline on the route, which accounted for 1.3 percent of global industry cargo traffic in 2025.
The decline contrasts with stronger activity in other major corridors. Asia–North America cargo traffic rose 9.2 percent, Europe–Asia increased 3.1 percent, Europe–North America grew 2.1 percent, and intra-Asia volumes climbed 6.1 percent.
IATA said global trade expanded by 7.5 percent year-on-year, while manufacturing activity and new export orders remained broadly supportive of demand. However, higher jet-fuel prices, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariffs remain risks to the outlook.
Jet-fuel prices rose 12.2 percent month-on-month in July and were 56.9 percent higher than a year earlier, adding pressure to airline operating costs. The global manufacturing-output Purchasing Managers’ Index eased by 0.3 points to 52.7, while the new export-orders index rose to 50.0, its highest reading in three months.
“Air cargo demand grew 3.9 percent year-on-year in July,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist. “While all regions recorded growth, airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America accounted for more than 90 percent of the overall increase.”
She said dedicated freighter aircraft gained market share as belly-hold cargo traffic declined, possibly reflecting demand for larger or specialised shipments and the operational flexibility provided by cargo aircraft.
For African exporters, the weak performance on the Asia route highlights the importance of improving air-cargo infrastructure, cold-chain facilities, customs systems and direct airline connections. These investments are especially important for time-sensitive exports such as flowers, fresh produce, pharmaceuticals and high-value manufactured goods.
Passenger Traffic Provides a Brighter Signal
Africa’s passenger market showed stronger momentum in July. African airlines recorded a 5.2 percent increase in total passenger demand compared with July 2025, while capacity rose 7.3 percent. The passenger load factor stood at 75.1 percent, down 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier.
International passenger demand among African airlines increased 6.4 percent year-on-year, while capacity expanded 9 percent. The international load factor fell 1.8 percentage points to 74.1 percent.
The figures indicate continued recovery and expansion in African aviation, but they also show that supply is growing faster than passenger demand. This could place pressure on airline yields and profitability if demand does not accelerate.
Globally, passenger demand rose only 0.2 percent in July, largely due to year-on-year declines among Middle Eastern and North American carriers. Excluding the Middle East, global demand grew by 1.2 percent.
IATA said the broader outlook for aviation remains cautiously positive, supported by growing trade, manufacturing activity and planned seat-capacity expansion. Yet high fuel costs, geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions to key trade corridors remain significant risks for airlines and exporters across Africa.
