Nairobi, Kenya
More than 40.3 million people across six countries in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region are facing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026, as conflict, climate shocks, economic pressures and declining humanitarian funding continue to undermine food access and livelihoods.
The figure represents 34% of the analysed population in Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda, according to IGAD’s Regional Focus on the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises. Ethiopia was not included in the report’s food-insecurity analysis because consensus-based data meeting the report’s technical requirements were unavailable. citefile:278
Although the regional total declined from 43.3 million people in 2025, the report said conditions worsened in Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia and South Sudan. Improvements in Sudan and Uganda contributed to the overall reduction, but both countries continue to face severe humanitarian needs.
The Sudan remains the region’s largest food crisis, with an estimated 19.5 million people—41% of the population—facing acute food insecurity between February and May 2026. South Sudan has the highest prevalence, with 55% of its population classified in Crisis or worse between April and July.
Somalia recorded nearly 6.5 million people facing acute food insecurity, equivalent to 33% of its population, while 4.1 million people in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands were affected. In Djibouti, about 300,000 people, or 25% of the analysed population, were projected to face acute food insecurity between July and December. Uganda recorded 2.1 million people in need of urgent food and livelihood assistance.
The report identifies conflict and insecurity as the leading drivers of the region’s food crises. Fighting in Sudan continues to disrupt farming, trade and humanitarian access, while violence in South Sudan and Somalia has displaced communities and damaged livelihoods.
In Sudan, conflict has eased in some areas, allowing limited returns and improved humanitarian access. However, Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan remain major hotspots, while Blue Nile and White Nile have emerged as new front lines.South Sudan has experienced escalating violence in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states. The fighting has displaced communities, restricted market access and disrupted basic services. South Sudan had an estimated 73,000 people in Catastrophe, the most severe phase of acute food insecurity, between April and July.
In Somalia, conflict involving armed groups, government forces and clan militias continues to disrupt livestock migration, trade and access to farmland. The report said conflict was the leading driver of displacement during the second quarter of 2026.
The regional food crisis is further complicated by cross-border displacement. Nearly 19 million people were forcibly displaced across the six countries, including approximately 14.5 million internally displaced people and 4.5 million refugees and asylum-seekers. citefile:278
The report said climate extremes are intensifying existing vulnerabilities. Poor October-to-December rains in 2025 contributed to drought across southeastern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and much of Somalia, causing crop failures, pasture shortages and livestock losses.
The impact has been especially severe among pastoralist communities. In Kenya’s Mandera County, nearly 29,700 livestock deaths were reported across three sub-counties by the end of January 2026, while milk production fell sharply below the long-term average.
El Niño conditions are now creating a mixed and potentially dangerous outlook for the region. Forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in western and northern areas, including parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti and northern Uganda.
At the same time, eastern and southern parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are expected to receive above-average rainfall during the October-to-December season. While the rainfall could improve crop and livestock conditions, it also raises the risk of flooding, crop destruction, displacement, disease outbreaks and damage to roads and other infrastructure.
The report warns that heavy rainfall in shared river basins could also cause cross-border flooding. Rainfall in Ethiopia’s southern highlands, for example, may increase flood risks downstream in Somalia, while heavy rain around the Lake Victoria Basin could raise water levels in South Sudan and Sudan.
Economic shocks are also limiting people’s ability to purchase food. Currency depreciation, high inflation, rising fuel prices and disruptions to trade routes have increased the cost of food and essential services across the region.
The conflict affecting the Middle East and instability along the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb corridor are placing additional pressure on countries that depend heavily on imported food, fuel and fertiliser.
The report said the immediate impact has been rising energy and transport costs. Since most countries in the region rely heavily on road transport, higher fuel prices quickly increase the cost of moving food from farms and ports to markets.
Import-dependent countries face particular risks. Djibouti imports all of its cereal requirements, while Somalia imports close to 90% of its cereals. South Sudan and Sudan are also heavily exposed to rising import costs and trade disruptions.
Fertiliser prices and availability are another concern. Ethiopia and Kenya, which use more fertiliser than several other countries in the region, could face rising agricultural production costs and lower profitability if global supply chains remain disrupted.Reduced remittance flows from Gulf countries could further weaken household purchasing power in Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan, where many families rely on money sent by relatives abroad.
The regional crisis is also producing a severe nutrition emergency. More than 9 million children aged between six months and five years are expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition across the six countries included in the report.Of these, approximately 2.3 million are suffering from severe acute malnutrition, placing them at increased risk of illness and death. The most serious nutrition crises are reported in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and parts of Kenya.Conflict, food shortages, disease outbreaks and inadequate access to health and sanitation services are reinforcing one another. Children in displaced and pastoralist communities are particularly vulnerable.
The report also warns that humanitarian funding cuts are forcing the closure of health and nutrition facilities just as needs are rising. In Somalia, the closure of nutrition and health facilities has reduced access to treatment and preventive services. South Sudan and Sudan face similar gaps in health, water and sanitation infrastructure.
Humanitarian funding for food-related sectors across the region fell to its lowest level since 2016 in 2025. The decline has limited the ability of humanitarian agencies to maintain food assistance, nutrition services, early-warning systems and emergency programmes.
The report calls for urgent restoration of humanitarian financing, greater investment in agriculture and food systems, and a shift from responding to crises after they occur to acting before climate and conflict shocks intensify.
IGAD’s Executive Secretary, Workneh Gebeyehu, said the region needed to move from emergency response to anticipation, from short-term relief to long-term investment, and from isolated national interventions to coordinated regional action.
The report recommends scaling up early-warning systems, protecting humanitarian access, integrating refugees and host communities into national food and nutrition programmes, and preparing in advance for El Niño-related floods and droughts.
